The resurgence of the Taliban and geopolitical turmoil
The embarrassing departure of the United States and its allies has created political instability and a security vacuum in Afghanistan. The current political instability and security vacuum in Afghanistan is of paramount importance as to which other power will fill it.
The current power vacuum in Afghanistan has brought about a major shift in world politics, regional and peripheral geopolitics in Afghanistan. However, as a member of the regional organization SAARC, it will definitely have an impact on Nepal as well. In Nepal's foreign policy, the two closest neighbours, China and India, and all other SAARC countries have been seen as expanded neighbours. Seen in this light, the latest developments in Afghanistan's expanding neighbour Afghanistan seem to have a profound effect on Nepal. There is also great interest in Nepal's foreign policy and the conduct of international relations and its impact on national security.
American leadership and the shifting balance of power
For some time now, there has been a sharp decline in US leadership in world politics. The embarrassing US withdrawal from Afghanistan reinforces this notion. Around the world, there is a strong message that the United States cannot win a war in any place or geography, even if it wants to.
The Taliban regained power faster than the US and NATO alliances had hoped. Behind this, the shift in the balance of power in world politics has worked equally but indirectly. The Taliban has been able to take full advantage of the divided mindset of the US leadership and the changing balance of power in the world. The Taliban's diplomatic rampage in recent times can be linked to this. The Taliban held some direct and many other disguised talks with most of the powers.
The return of the Taliban or Taliban 2.0 does not seem to be easy for any power. The world has seen the Taliban's previous tenure. The Taliban ruled Afghanistan from 1996 to 2001, capturing about 98 per cent of the territory. What is the new version of the Taliban regime in the current context and what are the interests of the world powers? What role do they play in Afghanistan today? Finding answers to all these questions is not easy.
Afghanistan has historically been a priority for global powers in terms of geopolitical importance. For the past 40 years, it has become a hotbed of powerhouses. Afghanistan is of interest to all powers because of its unique geopolitical location and strategic importance. Whether it was the entry of the United States in 2001 or the entry of the Soviet Union before that. In the past, the British Empire has failed to occupy Afghanistan three times at different times. However, no power has ever been able to hold on to power for long. All of these developments also help to understand how strategically important Afghanistan is to the powers-that-be.
Apart from this, another important interest of all the powers that be associated with Afghanistan is its abundant natural resources. Afghanistan is estimated to have more than १० 1 trillion worth of minerals. Whether it is Britain or the then Soviet Union, or the interests of the United States and Russia, there is an established view of its natural resources. This is also an interest of China and India in Afghanistan.
Possible role of China
The scenario of diplomatic presence in Afghanistan has changed since the US withdrawal. The United States has relocated its embassy in Kabul to Doha. Meanwhile, some other powers, including China and Russia, have said they will keep their offices in Kabul.
Based on the preliminary analysis, it can be assumed that powers like China and Russia can intensify their presence in Afghanistan. However, in Afghanistan, China seems to be wary of cooperating with the Taliban and its presence there.
For China, Afghanistan has been strategically important from two angles. First, in terms of international borders. Afghanistan is bordered by China's Xinjiang province, a region sensitive and important to China's internal security challenges. Where the Muslim-majority Uighur community is present. Some separatist forces are waging anti-China activities in the region. He has even been listed as a terrorist by the United Nations.
Second, the important project of the Belt and Road Initiative, CIPEC, which China has launched in partnership with Pakistan, is an economic corridor that runs through the region. Earlier, China had sought to boost economic cooperation with the then-Afghan government under the BRI. In that context, China had put forward a project to build an expressway from Peshawar to Kabul and connect it with CIPEC. But the project failed due to the reluctance of the then US-India friendly Afghan leadership.
Against this backdrop, the Chinese leadership, like the United States, needs to be reassured that the Taliban will not allow anti-China extremist forces to be used as a haven in Afghanistan.
India in adversity
Breaker: The return of the Taliban to Afghanistan now seems to affect regional geopolitics in South Asia. The Taliban regime is expected to be relatively friendly to Pakistan and China. This is going to be a big challenge for India
Due to its geographical proximity, Afghanistan has been a South Asian country. However, it formally entered SAARC only in 2007. Even then, Afghanistan became a member of SAARC, mainly on the initiative of the United States and India. Because, after the overthrow of the Taliban, the then Afghan government formed by the United States was directly supported by India. As South Asian countries, including Pakistan and Nepal, began to raise the issue of China's full membership in SAARC, India played a role in cleverly infiltrating Afghanistan into SAARC in the interest of the United States.
India alone has invested more than अर्ब 3 billion in Afghanistan. India has invested in the construction of Parliament building, expressway and dam. However, China has only ४० 400 million in investment in Afghanistan. It also shows that in the past, India was equally dominant in Afghanistan as a regional power along with the United States. But there seems to be a kind of difference between the US and India as well. The US and NATO have taken full responsibility for Afghanistan's military spending and security. The US emphasized that India should increase its role due to Afghanistan's geography and strategic location. However, India never wanted to take such responsibility.
The Taliban's return to Afghanistan now appears to be affecting regional geopolitics in South Asia. The Taliban regime in Afghanistan is expected to be relatively friendly to Pakistan and China. Which is going to be a big challenge for India. Based on this analysis, India's declining dominance in South Asia over the past few years is likely to be further eroded.
However, there has been a clear division in SAARC for a long time. The countries that follow the 'India First Policy', the Maldives and Bhutan are on one side. Second, the Taliban has an undeclared alliance with Pakistan. Under the new circumstances, the possibility of Pakistan and Afghanistan standing in the same camp within SAARC cannot be ruled out. Similarly, Nepal, Sri Lanka and Bangladesh have been seen in a balanced role. They don't seem to be leaning anywhere. The eternal problem of South Asia is the traditional enmity between Pakistan and India. Looking at the recent developments, the fact that SAARC is now active has added another serious challenge to the existing list of challenges. Due to this, for the time being, it can be felt that the cloud of further apprehension about SAARC moving forward or becoming active has begun to lift.
Added security challenge
The resurgence of the Taliban is likely to raise two main security challenges. One, the security challenges posed by state-protected extremist forces. From the Taliban's ideological point of view, religious extremism is likely to provide support and shelter to various extremist and separatist forces. With that in mind, powerhouses such as the United States and China have sought to reassure the Taliban that extremist forces will not be allowed to be used as a base in Afghanistan.
Second, the morale of extremist and separatist forces and the resulting security challenges. More than a dozen terrorist organizations are operating in the periphery of Afghanistan. Most are active in India, Pakistan and Afghanistan. The psychology that the resurgence of the Taliban can defeat any powerful nation if it continues to fight is widespread. Second, the rise of the Taliban is likely to have an impact on insurgent groups as well. Al Qaeda is also likely to be reorganized in a new way. The civil war in Afghanistan is inevitable due to the rivalry with ISI-K involved in the attack on Kabul airport and the ongoing struggle of the Northern Resistance Alliance.
This could further affect stability, peace and development in South Asia. South Asian nations will now increase their security spending, with an added assessment of the security challenge. Issues of economic development and cooperation are likely to be overshadowed.
Nepal's security interests also appear to be growing because terrorist organizations may be active in South Asia. Other countries, including Bangladesh and Sri Lanka, are also likely to increase security spending and vigilance. It is important to recall the series of attacks and suicide bombings carried out by Islamic terrorist groups in Sri Lanka in 2019. Such extremist forces will be able to target any country in the South.
In addition to the direct security challenges, the influx of migrants to South Asian countries, including Nepal, and the influx of refugees could become a major issue in the coming days. An example of this is the entry of Myanmar's Rohingya refugees into Nepal. Due to the open Nepal-India border, illegal entry into Nepal has been facilitated from Myanmar through Bangladesh to India and India. There have been studies at various times on the subject of using Nepal as a safe transit and refuge. Therefore, the issue of the use of Nepal as transit and secret haven by extremist forces in the coming days cannot be ignored.
External and internal security of Nepal